Soybean Prices Decline on High U.S. Stock Forecast, Corn Gains on Tightening Supply

by Daisy 12/02/2025

written by Daisy 12/02/2025

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures slipped on Wednesday, pressured by a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) report projecting higher-than-expected domestic soybean stocks and ongoing concerns over weak Chinese demand. Meanwhile, corn futures edged higher on strong demand and a tightening global supply outlook, while wheat traded lower in a volatile session.

Market Movements

Soybeans (CBOT): Down 17-1/2 cents to $10.26 per bushel by 1805 GMT.

USDA Report and Market Reactions

In its monthly report, the USDA maintained its forecast for U.S. soybean and corn end-of-season stocks, defying analyst expectations of reductions. However, the agency lowered Argentina’s corn and soybean production estimates due to hot and dry weather conditions damaging crops.

Despite the downward revision for Argentina, the global soybean supply remains ample, bolstered by a bumper harvest in Brazil, the world’s leading producer. “There’s not much for the market to be bullish on,” noted Randy Place, an analyst at Hightower Report.

Corn futures, in contrast, received a boost after the USDA projected global ending stocks below market expectations. The tightening supply outlook is particularly significant as world corn inventories for 2024-25 are forecast to reach their lowest level in a decade, driven by robust demand and last year’s smaller-than-anticipated U.S. harvest.

Export Demand and Weather Factors

Strong export demand has further supported corn prices. The USDA confirmed private sales of 365,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico on Monday, followed by an additional 130,320 tons to undisclosed buyers on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, grain traders are closely monitoring cold fronts in the U.S. Plains and Black Sea region, where winter wheat crops could face freeze damage. However, forecasts for snow coverage, which helps insulate crops from extreme cold, have eased some concerns.

Wheat Market Dynamics

Wheat futures turned lower but found underlying support from short covering. Commodity funds hold large net short positions in wheat, making the market susceptible to short-covering rallies.

As traders assess global supply risks and shifting demand trends, volatility in the grain markets is expected to persist.

CBOT

Daisy

My Name is Daisy Brown. I am a writer and futures researcher with more than a decade of experience in the futures industry, I have a deep understanding of futures trading and market conditions. My career began with a passion for financial markets, which immersed me in the intricacies of futures contracts and trading strategies. Current Position Currently, I hold a senior editorial position at futuresstocktrading.com, managing a team of traders and analysts. My responsibilities include not only executing high-risk trades, but also developing and implementing innovative trading strategies that align with market trends and client goals. Achievements Throughout my career, I have achieved significant milestones, including successfully managing high-value portfolios and developing forecasting models that consistently outperform market benchmarks. My insights and analysis are often sought after by industry publications, and I have been invited to speak at numerous financial conferences.

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