Paris rapeseed futures have experienced a sharp decline since early March, driven by concerns over tariffs and downward pressure on global oilseed prices. Between March 3 and March 12, old crop (May-25) and new crop futures dropped by £37/t and £25/t, respectively. Meanwhile, Winnipeg rapeseed futures also fell following China’s imposition of a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal imports.
On March 12, new crop (Nov-25) Paris rapeseed futures closed at a £10.1/t discount to old crop prices, marking the lowest spread in seven months. In contrast, the highest gap recorded was £46.9/t on December 16, 2024. The significant price difference in December was fueled by strong demand and tight supply in the EU market. However, early forecasts of increased EU rapeseed production for the 2025/26 season have pressured new crop prices.
Rapeseed Production Forecasts and Market Outlook
The European association COCERAL revised its EU rapeseed production forecast for 2025 down to 19.22 million tonnes (Mt) from December’s estimate of 19.49 Mt. Despite the downward revision, this remains higher than 2024’s production of 17.22 Mt. In contrast, Ukraine’s rapeseed production for 2025 is expected to decline by 7.6% due to drought conditions.
Looking Ahead: Market Trends and Key Factors
Old crop Paris rapeseed futures continue to face pressure from global tariff uncertainties, particularly regarding Canadian canola exports. Interestingly, new crop Winnipeg canola futures (Nov-25) are currently trading higher than old crop futures (May-25), suggesting that the price gap between old and new crop Paris rapeseed futures may continue to narrow in the medium term.
A key factor that could weigh on new crop Paris rapeseed futures is the anticipated increase in EU sunflower production for 2025 compared to the previous year.
Given the influence of Paris rapeseed futures on the UK domestic market, growers should closely monitor price volatility when planning their sales strategies. An upcoming edition of Grain Market Daily will examine the seasonal trends in Paris rapeseed futures prices.
