Tesla (TSLA) shares dropped over 5% on Monday as Mizuho analysts slashed their price target, citing declining demand and increasing challenges in China amid tariff uncertainties.
Lower Delivery Expectations
Mizuho revised its Tesla delivery forecasts downward, now expecting 1.8 million vehicles in 2024 and 2.3 million in 2026—significantly below its previous estimates of 2.3 million and 2.9 million, respectively. Analysts noted that Tesla “significantly underperformed the market” last month across key regions, including the U.S., China, and Europe.
Geopolitical and Competitive Pressures
Analysts attributed Tesla’s struggles partly to worsening geopolitical tensions and shifting brand perception. CEO Elon Musk’s deepening involvement in U.S. politics—now serving in the Trump administration—has sparked protests and reports of vandalism against Tesla vehicles, raising concerns that his political activities may be hurting sales. Meanwhile, competition from Chinese EV makers continues to grow, while demand for Tesla’s Model Y refresh has been softer than anticipated.
Price Target Revisions
Mizuho cut its Tesla price target from $515 to $430, still implying over 80% upside from Monday’s intraday price of $237.44. However, this remains significantly above the consensus analyst target of approximately $367, according to Visible Alpha.
Other firms have taken a more bearish stance:
- Wells Fargo lowered its price target to $130
- JPMorgan cut its target to $120
Tesla’s stock has now lost nearly half its value since peaking at $479.86 on December 17, reflecting mounting investor concerns over demand, competition, and external pressures.
