West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, the US benchmark, is trading at approximately $60.30 during the early Asian session on Monday, marking its lowest point since April 2021. The decline comes amid growing concerns that US President Donald Trump’s global tariffs could push the US economy into recession.
Traders are increasingly worried that the escalating trade war, fueled by Trump’s global tariffs, will significantly slow economic growth, both in the US and worldwide. These fears continue to exert downward pressure on WTI prices. Analysts at JPMorgan warned that the tariffs, set to take effect this week, “would likely push the US and possibly the global economy into recession this year.”
Further compounding the downturn, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) recently surprised the market with a decision to raise oil output. The group announced plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May, a significant jump from the previously planned 135,000 bpd.
Oil traders are now looking ahead to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, set for release later this week. Any indications of cooling inflation could weaken the US dollar, potentially offering some support to the USD-denominated crude oil prices in the short term.
