Shares of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (Nasdaq: SMCI) have seen significant gains, rising over 6% in premarket trading this morning, bringing the stock to $59.25 per share. This follows a more than 16% increase in the stock on Wednesday. Year-to-date, Supermicro’s stock has surged by over 83%, marking a rebound to levels not seen since last August, when a series of negative news, including allegations of accounting issues, triggered a prolonged decline in the stock price.
The recent turnaround in SMCI’s fortunes has been particularly noticeable over the past five days, with shares up over 30% as of yesterday’s close. So, what’s driving the dramatic shift in sentiment?
Supermicro Confident About SEC Filing Deadline
A key factor in the renewed optimism surrounding Supermicro is the company’s announcement last week that it believes it will be able to meet the critical February 25 deadline for filing its Form 10-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The filing, which should have been completed last year, is crucial to avoid potential delisting from the Nasdaq.
Supermicro reassured investors with a statement confirming its commitment to submitting the annual report on time: “Supermicro continues to work diligently toward the filing of its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, and its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2024.” The company expressed confidence that it will meet the deadline, offering investors some much-needed certainty after months of uncertainty regarding its regulatory compliance.
A Strong 2026 Outlook Powers Growth Expectations
Another significant driver of Supermicro’s stock rally is its updated revenue forecast for fiscal years 2025 and 2026. While the company slightly lowered its fiscal 2025 revenue projection, it raised its forecast for 2026, anticipating over $40 billion in revenue. This optimistic outlook is partially fueled by the growing demand for Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs, as businesses invest in AI infrastructure, which Supermicro’s server racks are well-positioned to support.
CEO Charles Liang expressed confidence in Supermicro’s future prospects, stating, “With our leading direct-liquid cooling (DLC) technology and over 30% of new data centers expected to adopt it in the next 12 months, Supermicro is well positioned to grow AI infrastructure design wins based on NVIDIA Blackwell and more.” He added that Supermicro plans to expand its leadership in the U.S.-based data center infrastructure market.
Outlook: Uncertainty Looms Despite Optimism
While the revenue forecasts are promising, they remain speculative and subject to market conditions. Similarly, while Supermicro is optimistic about meeting the SEC filing deadline, the real test will come when the forms are officially submitted by February 25. Until then, investors remain cautious but optimistic, as evidenced by the stock’s recent price surge.
Despite the sharp rally—up over 30% in the last five days and more than 83% year-to-date—Supermicro’s stock is still down more than 30% over the past 12 months. Whether the stock continues its upward momentum or faces further setbacks largely hinges on the upcoming SEC filing and the continued growth of the AI and data center sectors.
As of now, investors are closely watching the February 25 deadline, as confirmation of the 10-K filing will likely be the next major catalyst for Supermicro’s stock price.
