UK feed wheat futures for the new crop, November 2025, hit a three-month high of £200 per tonne at Tuesday’s close, reflecting a continued upward trend since December 2024. In contrast, the May 2025 futures have seen a downward trajectory since January 2025. This price divergence has been driven by a combination of low trade activity in the domestic market, which is exerting downward pressure on the 2024 crop prices, and weather uncertainties affecting winter crops in the northern hemisphere, which have supported the 2025 crop futures.
The price difference between the rising November 2025 futures and the falling May 2025 futures reached a premium of £12 per tonne at the market close on February 18, marking the highest premium since July 2023 when the November 2025 futures began trading.
International wheat markets mirrored this trend. Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures for the December 2025 crop closed on February 18 higher than their 2024 crop counterparts, by £13 per tonne and £4 per tonne, respectively. Conversely, Chicago maize futures closed with a £12 per tonne discount for the new crop, pressured by higher maize plantings in the US. Additionally, the soybean-to-maize price ratio is likely to encourage more spring planting of US maize.
Looking Ahead
The 2025 wheat crop’s price outlook is primarily supported by weather risks in the northern hemisphere, which will be a key factor to monitor in the coming months. As the spring planting season approaches, wheat could become more competitive in the market.
However, despite the strength in new crop futures, physical prices do not fully reflect this trend. The basis for East Anglia delivered prices for the old crop (over May futures) remains stronger than for the 2025 harvest (over November futures).
A key event to watch will be the USDA’s 101st Annual Agriculture Outlook Forum, scheduled for February 27-28, 2025. This forum traditionally presents the first forecast figures for the US spring crop, which could significantly influence prices for the 2025 crop.
