West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged higher to around $70.30 per barrel during Asian trading hours on Monday, though gains remained limited as expectations of resumed exports from Kurdistan weighed on the market.
Kurdistan Oil Exports Set to Resume
On Sunday, an Iraqi Oil Ministry official confirmed the country’s plan to restart crude exports from Kurdistan’s oilfields via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, with an initial volume of 185,000 barrels per day (bpd). The ministry stated that all necessary procedures had been completed to facilitate the resumption, raising supply expectations and exerting downward pressure on oil prices.
Geopolitical Factors in Focus
Traders continue to monitor geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which enters its fourth year on Monday. European Union leaders are set to hold an extraordinary summit on March 6 to discuss additional support for Ukraine and broader European security measures.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts between Russia and the U.S. could impact market sentiment. A senior Russian diplomat revealed that officials from both countries plan to meet this week to explore potential improvements in bilateral relations. This comes after former U.S. President Donald Trump initiated talks with Russia aimed at resolving the conflict—though notably excluding Ukraine and the EU from the negotiations.
Trade Policy and Economic Data Awaited
In addition to geopolitical concerns, investors remain wary of potential shifts in U.S. trade policy. Further tariff-related announcements from Trump could escalate global trade tensions, potentially dragging down crude oil demand. On Friday, Trump signed a memorandum directing the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to restrict Chinese investments in strategic sectors, a move that could have broader economic implications.
Market participants are also anticipating the release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index on Friday. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the data will provide crucial insight into future interest rate decisions, which could, in turn, influence energy market dynamics.
While WTI crude prices show resilience, the interplay of supply-side developments, geopolitical risks, and economic policy decisions will remain key factors driving market movements in the days ahead.
