Corn futures (CORN) on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are down nearly 1% today, continuing a speculative sell-off that began following the recent contract rollover. This decline marks a shift after several months of record gains, with corn futures reaching levels last seen in August 2023. The price drop is not only affecting corn but is also spilling over into wheat (WHEAT) and soybean (SOYBEAN) contracts.
Easing Momentum in Corn Prices
The corn market is facing a slowdown as favorable prices have encouraged an increase in U.S. planting forecasts. CoBank estimates that U.S. corn acreage could rise by up to 4%, reaching more than 94.5 million acres this season, potentially increasing supply.
After the weakening dollar and a decline in U.S. stockpiles had previously supported price hikes, the market is now concerned that President Trump’s renewed threat of tariffs on Mexico and Canada could strengthen the dollar. Additionally, improved weather conditions in Argentina and Brazil, including forecasts for heavy rainfall, have eased concerns over potential sowing issues, further pressuring corn futures.
CBOT data reveals that large funds were net sellers of corn both on Friday and during yesterday’s session. Despite these sell-offs, large speculators still maintain a significant net long position in CBOT corn futures, according to the latest Commitments of Traders (CoT) data.
Wheat and Soybean Markets Impacted
As corn prices decline, wheat futures are also experiencing losses. Despite forecasts from Russian state agencies indicating that unfavorable weather in southern regions may not severely impact wheat supplies, the broader grain market sentiment remains bearish.
In the soybean market, AgRural has slightly revised down Brazil’s soybean harvest forecast to 168.2 million metric tons, down from the previously projected 171 million. However, the upcoming harvest is still expected to be the largest in history, which could continue to influence global soybean prices.
USDA Outlook Could Further Pressure Corn
The USDA is set to release its wheat harvest projections at the Agricultural Outlook Forum on Friday. Any upward revision in wheat supply estimates could add further pressure on corn, as traders reassess market dynamics across the major agricultural commodities.
