Copper prices have experienced a notable surge since the start of 2025, with a 25 percent increase on the Comex, nearly matching the rise seen in tin. Similarly, on the London Metal Exchange (LME), copper is up approximately 10 percent compared to January. Despite recent declines, the overall market outlook remains positive, according to Commerzbank’s commodity analyst, Barbara Lambrecht.
Lambrecht attributes the recent price dip to a combination of heightened risk aversion in global markets and what she describes as a “healthy” market correction following an overheated surge in prices over the past weeks. She also highlights some factors that could support copper’s continued bullish trend, including improved sentiment in China’s industrial and construction sectors. However, she cautions that the ongoing escalation of trade tensions could undermine this optimism.
The copper market is also grappling with challenges, including disappointing production figures from Chile. In February, Chilean copper production dropped below 400,000 tons, marking a 5.5 percent decline from the previous year. This is a stark contrast to December’s record high of nearly 570,000 tons, which was 14 percent higher than the same period in 2024. Additionally, the ongoing tightness in copper concentrate supply, highlighted during a recent conference of Chinese copper smelters, is contributing to the strain on the market.
At the same time, smelters are reacting to the shortage by initiating early maintenance, further tightening supply. Political instability in Peru is adding to the volatility, with protests at the Antapaccay mine, the country’s seventh-largest copper mine, underscoring the risk factors. This follows delays in the expansion of the Las Bambas mine in 2023/2024, which was also hindered by protests from indigenous groups.
Despite these challenges, copper’s long-term prospects remain robust, driven by supply constraints and supportive market fundamentals.
