In May, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 48.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, which was lower than the critical point, and the level of manufacturing prosperity dropped slightly; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.5%, a decrease of 1.9% from the previous month percentage points, still higher than the critical point, and the non-manufacturing industry continued to grow restoratively; the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to remain in the boom range, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises continued to recover and develop. .
The PMI fell short of expectations across the board, and the weak expectations of the economy have been initially verified in reality, and the drag on downward prices is an important reason. The level of prosperity in the manufacturing industry has further cooled, and the non-manufacturing PMI has continued to weaken but is still in the economic range. The production momentum has been significantly negative for two consecutive months. Many sub-items of the manufacturing industry’s prosperity contracted across the board, and the multi-industrial chain of production, supply and marketing turned cold. In particular, the price-related indexes fell sharply. The PMI’s main raw material purchase price index fell from 46.4% in the previous month to 40.8%, the largest drop. , the ex-factory price index also dropped from 44.9% to 41.6%. The price decline is an important drag on the economic downturn. In addition, the pattern of weak production and demand continues. , but the rate of decline has flattened; the gap between production and demand (new orders-production index) has dropped slightly, and the extreme weakness on the production side may bottom out. It is worth mentioning that production and business activities are still expected to be in a high boom position, but they have further dropped from 54.7% to 54.1%, showing that although the prospects for the future have weakened, enterprises are not yet pessimistic. In addition, the economic level of large enterprises bottomed out and returned to the booming range, indicating that in the recession, the advantages of large enterprises have been strengthened, and the scale has expanded or their share has increased, while the situation of small and medium-sized enterprises has further deteriorated, which is consistent with the deterioration of the employment situation. phase call. The non-manufacturing PMI continues to weaken but is still in the boom range. The sharp drop in new orders in the service industry indicates that the non-manufacturing boom is expected to usher in an inflection point. The rapid decline is also closely related to the real estate chain, which confirms the weakness of black commodity prices.
On the disk, the capital market seems to be worried about today’s PMI. Yesterday’s commodity futures and the stock market both ended their rebound and turned down. Last night’s sharp drop in oil prices may have something to do with it. After the release of the data, it can be said that stocks, bonds, merchants and foreign exchange have killed four times, treasury bond futures fell, stock indexes fluctuated and weakened, and the outflow of northbound funds accelerated; commodities bottomed out and rebounded, and the black sectors with a high correlation with the domestic economy generally rebounded in shocks, while Commodities with international pricing represented by copper are weak and volatile after first falling and then rising. The biggest reaction is the foreign exchange market. The renminbi depreciated rapidly. The offshore renminbi fell below 7.11 against the U.S. dollar during the day, and fell by about 200 basis points within the day, and the onshore renminbi against the U.S. dollar approached 7.1. As a month-on-month data, PMI can better represent the reality of the economy and is close to people’s daily life feelings. At the same time, PMI is the earliest indicator to represent the release time of the economy. The overall line of data is lower than expected, which makes the economic weakening that the capital market is worried about for a period of time. Get preliminary verification. The top priority is to take strong policy measures to give confidence to the market and reverse pessimistic expectations. Otherwise, the market will continue to be weak.
