On June 25, China’s continuous meal followed the strong rise of U.S. soybeans. The 2309 contract closed at 3819 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival, an increase of more than 14% from the low point in early June.
However, China’s imported soybeans are concentrated in Hong Kong from June to July, and there is no shortage of soybeans. The price increase is mainly affected by various cost factors such as US soybeans, RMB exchange rate, and Brazilian discounts.
Therefore, although China’s soybean meal spot has been passively following up recently, the trend is slightly weaker, which makes the soybean meal spot basis fluctuate and shrink.
Mid-stream and downstream enterprises have also improved their purchasing sentiments due to rising prices, and the transaction volume of soybean meal has continued to increase in the past two weeks. However, apart from the obvious increase in terminal demand for poultry due to profit stimulation, the demand for live pigs is not optimistic.
Before the holiday, we had already warned about the risk of holding multiple positions. Based on the decline in U.S. soybeans during the holiday, the cost of imported soybeans in China fell by about 110 yuan/ton. For the soybean meal 2309 contract, attention should be paid to the performance of the 3700 yuan/ton integer mark.
In addition, the evolution of regional conflicts in Russia will inevitably have an impact on the global financial and agricultural product markets, and requires real-time attention.
