1. Supply factors: Judging from the production situation over the years, in the international corn market, the output of the United States accounts for more than 30%, that of China accounts for about 23%, and that of South America accounts for 10%-15%, becoming the main corn market in the world. Production areas, whose production and supply have a greater impact on the international market, especially the US corn production has become the most important factor affecting international supply. The production proportions of other countries and regions are relatively low, and have little impact on the international market.
2. Demand factors: From the perspective of China, corn consumption mainly comes from rations, feed and industrial processing. Among them, the overall consumption of rations has not changed much, and the impact on the market is relatively small; the proportion of corn for feed is the highest, accounting for nearly 60%, and changes in the demand for corn for feed have a greater impact on the market; the proportion of corn for industrial processing Accounting for more than 30%, the impact on the market is also very significant.
3. Import and export factors: The import and export of corn has a great impact on the market. Corn imports will increase China’s total supply, and corn exports will lead to an increase in total demand. For the international market, focus on the imports of major corn exporting countries such as the United States and Argentina, and countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia. Changes in corn production and consumption in these countries have a direct impact on international corn import and export trade.
4. Inventory factor: In a certain period of time, the inventory level of a commodity directly reflects the changes in the supply and demand of the commodity, and is an internal reflection of the supply and demand pattern of the commodity. Generally, when the inventory level is high, the supply is loose; when the inventory level is low, the supply is tight. Carryover levels and corn prices are often negatively correlated.
5. Cost-benefit factor: The cost-benefit situation of corn is one of the main factors that affect farmers’ enthusiasm for planting. The cost of corn has a certain influence on the market price. If the market price of grain is too low, farmers will be reluctant to sell it; The one-year corn planting arrangement will increase the income, and farmers may increase the planting area, and vice versa may reduce the planting area.
6. Financial and monetary factors: changes in interest rates and exchange rate fluctuations have become a common phenomenon in the economic life of various countries, and changes in these factors often cause fluctuations in commodity futures prices. In general, corn futures prices rise when the currency depreciates and fall when the currency appreciates.
7. Factors of the economic cycle: The economic cycle recurs repeatedly in the operation of the economy, and generally consists of four stages: recovery, prosperity, recession and depression. Affected by this, the price of corn will also fluctuate accordingly. From a macro perspective, the economic cycle is one of the very important influencing factors.
