The latest forecast of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations for global grain production in 2023 was raised by 5.9 million tons (0.2%) month-on-month to 2.819 billion tons in July, an increase of 1.1% year-on-year and a record high.
1. The upward revision to this month’s forecast is almost entirely due to an adjustment in global wheat production expectations. The latest forecast for global wheat production was revised up by 0.9% to 783.3 million tonnes, but would still be 18.4 million tonnes below the record level in 2022.
The European Union revised upward its wheat production forecast, with generally favorable weather conditions slightly boosting yield expectations despite a lack of rain in the Iberian Peninsula.
Canada and Kazakhstan, which mainly grow spring wheat, also raised their production forecasts due to higher-than-expected plantings. Türkiye’s recent official wheat production forecast was also higher than the initial forecast.
2. The forecast for global coarse grain production in 2023 was slightly lowered this month to 1.512 billion tons, but it was still 2.9% higher than the same period in 2022. The sequential reduction is partly due to downward revisions to corn production forecasts in East African countries as uneven rainfall in the region limits yield potential.
